(110718) Probability  (psoSbwR7CFk)
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Publish Date: 11/8/2018
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you well as I said I'm not going to be really hard on you on these Wednesday night prayer meetings but I have a whole bunch of numbers up here no you have to memorize all of those no no I'm going to teach you some things and I want to look at the prophetic mirror so we're all familiar with it but I want you to think about it maybe in a way that you haven't before so we all know the dates and this structure and when we've shared this with people what's one of the responses that we have when we share this with our fellow seventhday adventists there's different kinds of responses well either friendly or unfriendly well people say okay that's one thing but when you show them there's twenty five twenty years from 677 to 1844 or when you show them that there's twenty five twenty years from 723 to 1798 and here I'm gonna move this over put this more in the middle and you show them that this twenty five twenty part of it they know they know this part one thing I've had people say well this would be rather convenient if this were true has anybody ever got that response before really I've got this response a number of times people would say well this is really nice it looks nice but we don't believe it's true right now we know this part so every seventhday Adventist knows this or they should and they should know this though they may not know that this is 46 years now maybe it's just how I share things with people maybe that's why I get that response but one of the things I will show people is that here I guess I'm going to move this back over here again there's another date in here which we could share with people and this is 34 ad right so we know then this is lopsided now this is 1260 years and this period here what is this period how would you describe this to someone from 34 ad to 538 if you're describing the 25 22 somebody what what do you tell them this period is where do you even talk about that okay what would you call this 34 ad 538 what's happening here okay well okay there's pagan Rome right pagan Rome is has is here and what's pagan Rome doing okay it's persecution so this is pagan persecution okay that's this persecution and what is this it's papal persecution and this is 1260 years how long is this we kind of done this couple yesterday morning but how many how many years is this five hundred and four years right so this period here is two times 252 so we talked about this before and this period is how long 1260 if I was going to use this how many times is it of 252 how many times it's 252 going to talk five times 252 so see I usually show people these things right and when I show somebody like something some somebody something like this what would would they say what's the chances okay there we go so what's the chances and that's really what I want to look at is what are the chances that this prophetic mere exists in the form that it does right so we sort of take for granted these dates but you know if you think about this from 677 to 1844 William Miller had this twenty five twenty the seven times prophecy and you'll find in his writings that he mentions one time about he takes the date 722 BC but he says you know there's also 25 20 years for northern Israel but the question is what is the chances that there's a 25 24 Judah and a 25 24 northern Israel now that's why I say some people say well that would be convenient right but we can actually definitely mark 723 we're very close to it you know some people might have 722 721 it depends what adventure looking at but for the captivity of hosiah 723 is the best date that anybody can arrive at but the chance that this exists I don't know how I would create count the probability for this but this would be unlikely that you're going to have 225 20s and that one of them is going to be divided you could equally in half and especially since Jesus is crucified in the midst of a 2520 right so when we start to think about probability there is does anybody really know what probability is anybody give me a good definition of what probability is okay mathematical formula for events to coincide okay that sounds good Heidi no likelihood something is gonna actually happen likelihood something's gonna actually happen right so let's say I'm walking along on the sidewalk and I need some money badly and there's twenty dollars in a snow bank you know this is Canada where I walk there's lots of you know it happens Heidi tends to find more than her fair share of money in snow banks probably because she needs money more you know but what's the likelihood something like that is going to happen can I create a probability of how likely it is that I'm gonna find a $20 bill in a snow bank yes yes so what would I do to create a problem probability but theoretically you could but it's so complicated yeah well what you could do is you could find you know if you could take a sample of the population find out how often people find money and snowbanks then you could say you know people on on average find a certain amount of money in their lifetime that they report and so then you could figure out the probabilities based on this sample group of people and then you could realize that the chance that I'm going to find money at some time in a snow bank is actually fairly likely right how many people have found money here you know walking down the street you find some money of some value yeah I once found a $50 bill in the country no plate nobody around in my backyard I don't know how it got there I I took it it must be from God because I really needed the money badly back then but we've all found money so the chance that I'm going to find money at some time in my life is actually very likely it's very likely that we're all going at one time or other we're gonna find money and how often do we actually need money you know most of us need money money is always nice so we might think that it's a very unlikely event to find money but it's actually a very likely event it's not something that's highly unlikely that we may think well I'm thinking about I need some money and I'm poor and and you find money but there would be lots of people who are poor and never find money and so you're not you have to understand that even though something may seem highly unlikely unlikely things happen to a certain percentage of people it just doesn't happen to everyone right so when it comes to probability sometimes people because they don't understand it they don't know how to define it there are things that are very probable that they think are highly improbable and vice versa so I'm gonna look at at this prophetic mirror in a way that you maybe never thought about it before and show you how improbable it is on different levels now some of the probabilities are easy for me to calculate I don't know how it would calculate what's the chance that the cross of Christ is going to match up with this I don't know how to create those parameters but what I want to really look at is the dates of this prophetic mirror and those were all familiar with now I'm going to tell you something that you don't know about these dates and I'm gonna try to explain it so we have in a month how many days anybody knows and how many days we have in a month okay we have 29.5 three days that's how many days they're on a month on average on a lunar month right and so we're talking obviously about a lunar calendar here which would be the biblical calendar so how many hours would we have in a month to go around here okay it's not really the orbit of the moon around the earth it's the orbit it's it's the moon from full moon to full moon yeah yeah so 29.5 three days is what we see on average from New Moon to New Moon or full moon to full moon which ever moon to whichever moon right so how many hours would there be in a month I think it's yeah 7.7  yeah okay so that's how many hours there are in a month so this is it you know we probably have never thought about it right now each of these years have a certain quality about them that you can't tell by looking at the numbers but when you have a biblical calendar there's a thing called an embolism ik year that is there's a leap year where they have an extra month added and there's seven of them every 19 years does anybody know what 19 divided by seven is okay so two point so that means that the chance that one of these years if you just take any year the chance that that year has an embolism ik year before it that is that year begins after a thirteenth month is one into 0.7 almost one in three does that make sense to people so if you just take a random year on the biblical calendar one in three nearly one in three are going to start after a thirteenth month has occurred right each one of these years does that okay so it's very interesting it wasn't something actually noticed until I was doing the midst of the week study so yeah so each one of these years is false begins after a thirteenth month that means the first day of the first month in 742 occurs after second Adar or v8r right the chances of that occurring for any instance is 2.7 one for while almost one in three so hey what occurs Oh si si you are in every 19 years there's seven embolism occurs right embolism ik it's just like it sounds no all years begin on the first day of the first month it's just that the month before is the thirteenth month so the month preceding the first day of the first month is going to be that is the last day of the previous year is going to be the last day of var var is the thirteenth month or second Adar right so you have a the year has 12 months but seven out of 19 years have thirteen months and these are all following a year that has a thirteenth month okay does that make sense to people wouldn't have well they would be less than half would have this that's one in three it's almost one third of if you take any given year one third of them nearly onethird will have that happen so for just one instance it's not it's it's fairly likely right it's one in three that you're going to have a year beginning after a thirteenth month yes because in every 19 years there's seven of those so this gives me how often for one instance there's seven thirteen months seven years that have an embolism yeah every 19 years there's a seven of them every 19 years for every span of 19 years seven of those years have a 13th month so it's quite common you know if it was five out of ten that would be half but this is seven out of 19 so it's three points two point seven one four right yeah 27% chance okay that you're going to have this happen so for just one instance it's still fairly likely but when you have seven of these it becomes very highly unlikely yes Christy I'm sorry I hate to make it like math but I thought it'd be simpler every night are you talking about a calendar is it a particular counter this is the biblical calendar okay wait on a Gregorian we don't know we don't have embolisms it has nothing to do with our calendar so this is a biblical account this is a biblical calendar so for the biblical calendar for each of these years this occurred so what you would do is you would take this number then you'd multiply it by itself seven times so you would take two point seven one four multiplied it by two point seven one four and then do that seven times so if somebody can do that yes no because the 3480 doesn't have that it does have actually it does have I could have put 31 ad but I just want to look at the things in the prophetic mirror we have seven of these dates and it's it's a one in a thousand chance roughly I can't remember what the number was it was like one in yeah one in a thousand 85 so so we would do this as yeah one in I guess we just go a thousand eightyfive we could do it as times 10 to the power of three right no  now what did I do wrong just one in a thousand and eightyfive yeah okay okay so one in a thousand and eighty five so the chance that these occurs for each of these years that this prophetic mere exists is not likely I mean it's possible that it could just if you took seven random dates there would be one on average one in a thousand and eighty five times you would have the same thing occur does that make sense to people because I because yeah if I pick seven random dates in history the chances that they would have the same characteristics as these seven years that they would have an embolism ik month preceding them is one in a thousand and 85 yes we just did the math what do you think it would be more likely or less Lee you think it was less likely that all had well but that's the statistics because each one is just you know 27% chance you're just multiplying the 27% chance by seven times now there's also something about these years that I did over here so if that was confusing this might be more confusing so these are the years now in each of these years I have here the equinox so when you have a a month you're gonna have 29 or 30 days in every month right and the chances that if I was gonna pick a random day in a month just throw a dart on a calendar what's the chances that the dart is going to land in the the first part of the month or the second part of the month so if I said what's the chances that I'm going to hit a date from 1 to 15 what's the chances that's going to be a 50% chance right because the other randomly I'm going to hit the date 16 to 30 does that make sense now if I said what are the chances that I'm going to hit the 15th of the month well any time if I throw a dart just one time what's the chances that I'm gonna hit the 15th of the month that's one in 30 right yeah okay so the more I narrow that window the less likely it is that I'm going to hit that date so what I'm gonna do here is I'm going to narrow that window and what I'm doing is I'm looking at the equinox so the equinox is specifically marked in you know in any sort of calendar we have this time of the equinox the spring equinox now we now have it roughly on the 20th thirds of 21st depends where you live on the world these here older dates these are Julian dates in the past and in the past the Julian calendar drifted but you don't need to worry about that all I want you to recognize is that from the time of the equinoxes to the time of the visible Crescent is a certain span of time and I could have put how long it is but I didn't but I just for brevity I just want you to recognize what I'm doing is I'm taking the equinox the time of it this one in 742 the equinox is on the 29th now this is in Jerusalem time that I'm working with at 556 in the morning and the visible Crescent is seen on the 28th the evening before at 5:50 so set this is 1750 hours right what's that of the month on our calendar this is our calendar these are Julian dates these are Gregorian dates here these are all Julian dates yes well this is the 13th month so I'm looking at the 13th month when the spring equinox occurs and because these are so close in each of these years they have to add an extra month so this is where you would normally make the decision when the spring equinox occurs am I going to add a thirteenth month or not and in each of these years you have to add a thirteenth month with just barely right they're so close that sometimes and I should have put it here like this one is twelve hours and six minutes between the visible Crescent and the equinox so if it was on the on the other side of it the you wouldn't have you wouldn't have needed to add an extra month but in this case it's it's too close to call and then they can call it but the thing is you have to add an extra month so it's very very close so each of these dates here I define in the probability based on how many hours or the window was for each of these months so in 742 you basically have because there's about 12 hours what I do is I double the number of hours so it's 12 point hours and 6 minutes I multiply it by 2 so I get 24 hours and 12 minutes and I take that 708 hours and 70 point seven two and I divide this by 24 hours and twelve minutes so it's actually different decimal than that this you have to turn those minutes into decimals but the point is the probability is basically 1 in 30 does that make sense so the chance that that you're going to have a equinox to visible crest that's about 12 hours apart is about 1 in 30 and I did this actually is I just took a whole bunch of random months and I saw what the chances were and it averaged out to be about half of them if you just take a year you know it's nearly half but it's that you're going to get something that's far away from the visible Crescent or closer right so you can have somewhere I don't know how to explain it but the point is that the probability for this instance is just one in thirty one in twenty nine point two eight five nine now in seven twenty three the probability is even smaller because the time between here is roughly about six hours it might even be like five hours or something like that between these two here so this is at two hours yeah two hours so this one is one in a hundred and thirty one probability each one of these has a probability this is these two are are more probable than the other ones but these ones are less probable and so what I did is I multiplied these probabilities together just like I did with that two point seven one four but when you start to multiply things together that are larger you're going to have a larger probability so the chances that this would occur are two point seven three I have it written down I think it's seven three one but times ten to the power of ten so this would be yeah so we'll just say twenty two billion yeah but we'll just say it's twenty two trillion what we call trillion so 22 one in twenty two choke trillion what's that you're doing no this is what we call trillion no yeah no million billion this is billion yes yeah never mind this billion you're cracked 20 to 1 in 22 billion now how many people live on the earth roughly seven billion so this is three times the number of people that live on the earth and if I was to just randomly pick somebody let's say I was I picked you out of all those people that would still be more likely three times more likely than that this occurred by random chance one group of numbers are Jillian once Gregory and I couldn't tell Google Orion there's don't worry mean up here don't worry about that does it matter would you show me anyway okay these dates here yes before 1798 are all Julian calendars because the Julian calendar existed up until you know 1582 these are Gregorian dates that's why these ones have drifted away from the equinoxes on the 29th of March right here the equinox is on the 21st of March on the 20th on the 20th so your point is just saying that the probability of the occurrence of this is not random you know it's designed yeah it's very very low yes that this could occur by chance yes you're gonna help me here Phillip right what you did there with 1000 yeah but you don't understand what I did here is this the same because it's the same thing as this when I'm narrowing the parameters on how close it is so you're gonna have a lot of months that you're going to have an embolism ik year right you're gonna have it but it could be you could have 30 days away or 29 days or 28 days away from the equinox and the visible Crescent right because you're gonna have that Equinox way way earlier than the visible Crescent I know this maybe doesn't make sense to people but the thing is the proximity of the equinox in the visible Crescent the closer it gets to each other the less probable that target is right because let's say I just saying that the visible Crescent happens on the same day as the spring equinox what's the chance of that roughly it's 1 in 30 you know it you know if you just took it as a rough guess the spring equinox and the visible Crescent happened on the same day because they can happen on any calendar day apart from each other you can have them the visible Crescent on you know 29 days before the spring equinox or 28 or 27 or 26 or 25 and the chance is that each of those occur is just as likely as any other date what what you're trying to emphasize here is the closeness is that in every year from 1742 to 1863 yeah the equinoxes and the visible Crescent happen in the same day within within roughly within a day some there's one that happens I think 50 hours apart is the furthest one that would be the one that's eight you know one in 8 chance okay so these anyway if it could happen in any day like you say again equinox is the first and the visible Crescent is the 13th then it's it's actually one in nine hundred times that are very aligned because you have to have both yeah it's you multiply but I don't know confusing no you don't but so these actually did I actually took a bunch around the ones and found that it is a condition where there used to happen are these two independent things are they connected well they're connected in the sense that we know first that each of these have an embolism ik month preceding them we're on a what I mean is when you have an in beliefs me here yeah is the usually that the equinox and the visible Crescent are with Deena Chanel yeah or you know it's not it can be anywhere within that whole span so this is independent of the embodies meek rights of the yeah because it could be 15 days on one side or 15 days on the other alright that's why I double the number to account for that so there are two two different things you're trying with this year's one that they're in bulimic and  yeah I have yeah and I haven't added that into it I'm just taking this basically that we're gonna have this and to them that they're conducting the visible Crescent are within a day yeah all of that yeah yeah and and so some are a couple hours apart some are further and so I took each one and measured how likely it was that if you picked a random year how likely would it be that you would have the equinoxes and the visible Crescent this close that would be one in nearly a hundred of random years that you would pick that would have that happen so when you go through each of these and you figure out how close the equinox is to the visible Crescent then you would find for each one how probable each instance is for that distance of time between the equinox and the Crescent the farther it is the more chance that you're going to have that occur if you have a span of time and you say within this span of time that they're going to be let's say they're 15 days on either side of the equinox that's a hundred percent right because that's the whole span of a whole month people not understanding these these things you're having trouble with this I want to tell my trustee okay Christy okay ask me yeah okay I have a question about your math on the first sign is 742 mmmhmm you said it 29 days and 556 yep the difference between is that 556 as in 553 so if you did the difference between 556 and 1700 is that like a military clock of 70 okay so this this is a military clock okay so that means it's 556 am yes yeah then we go to 1750 which is in the a point which is five 550 in the entrance yeah and this is the day after this is the baby four okay so you're saying that that's a difference in like twelve some are twelve hours and six minutes and your next line you said it was the closest which I don't agree with you and maybe that's why my mind is not thinking okay maybe it's not right now so this is 750 so and this is so this would be two hours and 41 minutes no because this is apart but the twelve are the 20 point 331 to get to the 24 hours is gonna be three hours and 29 minutes plus the same day though these are different days these are the same day because the 28 in the 28 yeah yeah same day okay so how did you cut okay so let's go back to the top on a Mesa 20 yeah 28 so you go to the top line the 29 and then the 28 so you gotta go back okay how did you get the twenty nine point two eight five nine how did you get them you just look at any any ephemeris and it'll tell you exactly for that year it's a it's a thing for calendars to tell you when the equinoxes it tells you all kinds of things about stars and moons and Sun so you look at it's called an ephemeris data and you look at that and it'll tell you in 742 that the equinoxes occurred in Jerusalem at 5:56 a.m. on the 29th of March on the Julian calendar is this all taken from the Jews when they're looking is in Jerusalem yeah this is Jerusalem this is all Jerusalem because that's where you find out when the year starts ok yes Jim so just a zoom out for contest okay okay these are good questions cuz now I think people starting to catch on yeah so just to zoom out for context that the goal is to win souls yeah if you're going to present this line of reasoning then you have to establish that the person is a left brained person before you can go down there right brain right brain forget it it's not gonna go anywhere this would be right brained well it's mathematical versus creative the creative side is not going to I don't think it's not gonna I don't think it's gonna win over okay it's just a thought that's okay it's a different approach for your first certain well I'm just wanting you guys to understand the probability of this because we've been dealing with all these numbers and all these calendars and when we deal with probabilities the probability of this 22 billion to one is much more probable than the other things that we've been finding out regarding Samuel snows letters and the Islam and so forth this is way more likely like way way more likely than those things that we've been finding out right because we would be dealing with I would think hundreds of zeros just based on some of my preliminary sort of ways in which I tried to evaluate that so this is this is what this is very likely compared to those other things that we've been finding but this is highly unlikely that this is this would be somebody picked these dates specifically for their qualities and characteristics to show us that they did it right that's why these dates have been picked by God he wants us to know that this prophetic mirror is not just random dates they may appear to be random dates but he actually picked dates where they follow a nimble is makeer but also in a very narrow parameter some of them and when you take all of them together and you equate what's the probability of the nearness of the equinoxes to the visible Crescent it becomes twenty two billion to one yes and police make here is he the same sleepier or do you it's a leap year it's a leap month they have a thirteenth month yeah it's a leap year but it's a leap month on the Jewish calendar yes yeah okay here's a question to one that you're going to have two hours within a month between the equinoxes two hours and 41 minutes between the equinoxes and the visible prescient if you're going to have something within that range and you picked random dates yeah yeah yeah this is not percentage this is probability you know so one in a hundred and thirty one years you would have that narrow of a parameter between the equinox and the visible Crescent and you know you can see the one you know 1844 is old you know almost a hundred to one some of these other ones you know normally I was figuring that you know you're gonna have something like that it's within a certain time within it like a 12 hour period or so is going to be roughly thirty if it's a bigger period it's gonna be smaller right the chat the probability is more likely so as these numbers go higher that's less probable that it's gonna happen right so if you had a one a two to one chance then that would be just 50/50 right so some of these are they're more much more likely than than others but they're all still very unlikely but it's the multiplication of them all together that each of these dates on the prophetic mirror are going to have these characteristics the point that I'm trying to make is that we're dealing with statistics and maybe you know maybe I haven't helped you much but I want you to see that we're dealing with things that are highly unlikely to occur and that our message the mathematics of this prophetic message whether you understand it or not is so unlikely that it has just occurred randomly that we have to like even Samuel snows letters they're actually less likely than this right now when you start to say that we're gonna have these other lines and they match Samuel snows letters you start to multiply these the the likelihood of these things becomes less and less and less and less and that's really what I wanted you understand I don't want you to memorize this but I want you to understand at least that concept that we're dealing with something that is design right and that hopefully that we could grasp that so okay I'm gonna really try to be easy for you on all the other things that we do yes yeah yeah and and the thing is you know these things I mean you know we might have thought the prophetic mirror was unlikely just you know we thought it was pretty amazing just that these things exist but we never knew before we never nobody really looked at it before to see that this is something that just doesn't happen without somebody designing it and no man has ever thought no man could ever design this you can't pick these dates in history and create these spans and these prophecies on your own they have to be under God's design yes Alissa anyway God wants to be proven mmhmm he is letting us know very very clearly that he exists yeah yeah there's Romans chapter one I can't remember the verse but it says the invisible things of him from the creation of the world are clearly seen being understood by the things that are made even his eternal power and Godhead so that they are without excuse so let's close with prayer dear father in heaven we thank you for all the things that you've been doing in our lives and we know Lord that the greatest evidences that we have experienced is the way that you have worked in our hearts in our lives that you reveal to us or need of you and that you've been there as our friend we know Lord that there's many things that we do not understand fully but we asked Lord that we can at least appreciate that you understand all things and have planned all things from the beginning of the world every detail and that you know us and that our life has a purpose and a plan that is improbable but is guided by your hand I pray for each person here that we can be struck by the awesomeness for lack of a better word of how you have worked in this message how you have chosen each person and worked upon our hearts and as we look at these things throughout this next couple of months the light that has come and come and as we examine this light board we ask for an intelligence and an ability bit of above the natural abilities that we have we ask for your Holy Spirit to teach us and thank you Lord for each person again and for the way that you are working and we give our lives to you and we pray this in Jesus name Amen
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